Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
Standard
51
Ṁ5959
2030
72%
chance

It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.

If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).

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According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.

@riverwalk3 What happens if you include BMI?