
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
62
1kṀ73012030
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
64% chance
Will Joe Biden outlive Donald Trump?
32% chance
Will Trump outlive Biden?
69% chance
Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency?
86% chance
Will Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
32% chance
Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)
66% chance
Will Donald Trump outlive the United States of America?
3% chance
Will Trump outlive DeSantis?
8% chance
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
69% chance