
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
75
1kṀ11k2030
67%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It resolves to N/A if both are alive on the closing date or if both die within 24 hours of each other.
If one of them is missing or otherwise presumed dead for more then 6 months, we assume they died at the date of their disappearance (until then they are presumed alive).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
According to actuarial tables, the odds of dying in a given year increases by roughly 50% as you age by 4. Thus, the fair price should be about 1.5/(1+0.5) = 60%.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency?
68% chance
Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)
68% chance
Will Donald Trump outlive the United States of America?
3% chance
Will Trump outlive Xi?
20% chance
Will George W Bush outlive Donald Trump?
76% chance
Will Donald Trump outlive any of his children?
21% chance
Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
37% chance
Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026?
16% chance
Will Joe Biden outlive Hunter Biden?
4% chance
Will Donald Trump be alive by 31 December 2026?
93% chance