MANIFOLD
Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)
24
Ṁ1kṀ4k
2146
68%
chance

N/A in other cases

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Do both of them have to die of natural causes for this to not resolve N/A (in which case it won't resolve until both are dead), or only the one that dies first?

An extremely naive simulation, using actuarial tables alone, predicts that Trump will die first in around 60% of cases.

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