Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Who will outlive: Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
160
2.2kṀ12k2050
Donald Trump66%
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve to the person that stays with us (alive) till later date, regardless of their age.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
bought Ṁ250 YES1y
Who will outlive?
the man who seems in decent physical health
OR
the morbidly obese man who refuses to take a physical
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?
31% chance
Will Joe Biden outlive Donald Trump?
32% chance
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
64% chance
Will Donald Trump outlive Joe Biden?
69% chance
Will Trump outlive Biden?
69% chance
Will Joe Biden outlive the Trump Presidency?
86% chance
Who will die first, Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Will Trump outlive Biden? (natural causes)
66% chance
Will Donald Trump die before Joe Biden?
32% chance
Will Biden or Trump die before the end of 2025?
9% chance