Resolution Criteria

The market resolves based on majority of 1,450,000 military service members receive the $1,776 Warrior Dividend payment in their bank accounts. Resolution will be verified through official Department of Defense announcements, military pay system confirmations, or credible reporting from major news outlets documenting successful deposit of funds.

Background

Trump announced $1,776 checks to U.S. military members, calling the payment the "Warrior Dividend". The dividends are designated for active-duty service members in pay grades O-6 and below, and reserve component service members in pay grades O-6 and below on active duty orders of 31 days or more as of November 30. Trump credited tariffs and a GOP tax and spending bill passed earlier in 2025 as funding sources.

Considerations

The payments total approximately $2.5 billion, but it remains unclear how the administration will appropriate the funds without prior Congressional approval. While Trump stated the money will arrive before Christmas, the exact funding mechanism is unclear. Congressional action or legal challenges could delay or prevent the payments from being distributed as announced.