Will the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receive Royal Assent?
Mini
12
Ṁ2.9kresolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the bill receives Royal Assent, NO if Section 35 is activated and not challenged. If Section 35 is activated and challenged, resolves based on how the court case goes.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
33% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
20% chance
Will the UK legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
53% chance
Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
20% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2025 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
4% chance
Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
54% chance
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ80 | |
| 2 | Ṁ41 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
Sort by:
The bill's still before Scottish Parliament (basically just waiting for a Labour government), but the court ruled against the Scottish Ministers.
Can't find anything about this actually receiving a court challenge, despite Sturgeon's insistence it would happen. The first dependent market resolves on 2025-01-01, so that's a hard upper limit on when this will resolve. I guess we'll have to see what the new First Minister has to say when they're elected.
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2029 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
33% chance
Will Scotland leave the UK before 2030 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
20% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2027 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
20% chance
Will there be a Scottish independence referendum before 2025 if the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill doesn't receive Royal Assent?
4% chance
Will the UK legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
53% chance
Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
54% chance