Will the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill receive Royal Assent?
Basic
12
Ṁ2861
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the bill receives Royal Assent, NO if Section 35 is activated and not challenged. If Section 35 is activated and challenged, resolves based on how the court case goes.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/20/gender-recognition-reform-bill-scottish-ministers-drop-legal-action-westminster-veto

The bill's still before Scottish Parliament (basically just waiting for a Labour government), but the court ruled against the Scottish Ministers.

predictedNO

Can't find anything about this actually receiving a court challenge, despite Sturgeon's insistence it would happen. The first dependent market resolves on 2025-01-01, so that's a hard upper limit on when this will resolve. I guess we'll have to see what the new First Minister has to say when they're elected.

So it's down to the court case?

@CromlynGames Provided Sturgeon keeps her promise to challenge, yeah. (Which seems almost certain.)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules