Will the climate crisis be one of Wikipedia's ongoing events on 2024-01-01?
50
316
970
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO

I'll check the Current events page sometime that day and resolve accordingly. The article name need not match exactly.

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boughtṀ100NO

@NcyRocks what makes you think they remove it now?

predicted NO

@AlexbGoode It has been removed for a while :)

predicted YES
predicted NO

@AlexbGoode Used to be here and that's what I'm assuming the market is referring to:

predicted YES

@NcyRocks could you confirm that the "climate change" on the current event page is not sufficient for this market to resolve yes?

predicted YES

@AlexbGoode The words "climate change" appearing on the page is insufficient; an event called something like "Climate crisis" has to be an ongoing event.

sold Ṁ108 of YES

@NcyRocks it's really annoying that 50% of manifold is predicting what the market creator means and only 50% about the actual question

sold Ṁ79 of NO

@AlexbGoode I feel like this one was pretty clear to be honest, there are a lot of other similar markets that are shown in "related" and all of those events are shown in that ongoing events section. There's also a difference between the "climate crisis" in the title and that "climate change" mentioned in events, which can generate some confusion and if you looked at the original archived page it would've become immediately clear. A third way would've been to wonder why on earth would I be making a significant NO bet here if it's still there :D

@NamesAreHard of course you think it was clear since your interpretation matches the creators and you made mana from being right. The description says "the article name need not match exactly" and the wikipedia article on climate crisis starts with the words "Climate crisis is a term describing global warming and climate change,.."
Anyway, it is mood to discuss semantics of a bet after the bet has already taken place. The market creator has absolute power over how to interpret their market and I lost this one and will take my lesson. I just wish there would be an incentive for market creators to put some minimum effort in the creation of markets.

predicted YES

@NcyRocks "an event called something like 'climate crisis' has to be an ongoing event"

Isn't it fair to say that "climate change" is "something like climate crisis"? Seems like just another term for the same thing to me.

predicted NO

@Fion The point here is that there's an "Ongoing events" section on the current events page where "Climate crisis" used to be but is not anymore. If "climate change" was in that section, then I'd also agree it should be accepted but it's in an entirely different place on the page.

predicted YES

@NamesAreHard oh is see. It's a "2023 event" rather than an "ongoing event"?

predicted NO

@Fion More like that other section is for more general topics in which there have been some events during the year - it's for high-level categories like "elections" or "weather", while the ongoing events section links to specific pages summarizing what has been going on with some particular crisis or other happening. I think the main criteria for things being included there are importance and a continous stream of new developments.

Why is this so high?

predicted YES

@Yoav I’m surprised it’s so low. Why would you expect Wikipedia to remove it?