Will Manifold Markets have prediction markets before 2023-06-01?

430Ṁ1623

resolved Apr 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

Prediction markets are a way of aggregating and betting on beliefs. It seems pretty in-line with Manifold's current mission and slate of features, and there'd be a lot of different use cases. Resolves YES if Manifold has implemented prediction markets by close, or if someone can show me some kind of workaround or other method by which Manifold's current features can be used to simulate a prediction market of some kind.

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This was an April Fool's market. Manifold already has prediction markets.

There's already a pretty well-known workaroud for this, right? You can just make a Permanent Market, then state in the description (as conspicuously as you can manage, so that no-one has grounds to be mad when you follow through) that it's not actually permanent and will be resolved according to specified criteria.

@Forrest Interesting, I think that could work but I don’t know if the permanent market mechanism was made to be anchored to a resolution rather than other bettors’ activity…