Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-tritium fusion by 2024?
39%
chance
From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232:
"Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q > 1 D-T fusion by 2024, and a 65% chance of Q > 1 D-He3 fusion by 2026."
Hmmm, to be honest I should've inquired which breakeven point was meant before betting (I was expecting something higher than Q > 1 tbh) but I'll stand by my bet I suppose.
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