Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100? | Manifold

Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?

Plus

38

Ṁ2191

2099

39%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if conclusive evidence is found of life that does not live on Earth and did not originate from Earth.

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Does extinct life count?

predicts NO

"Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?"

Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?

Still hope we find aliens, though.

By not originate from Earth, do you mean modern Earth? We know that in the early days of life on Earth we were trading rocks with Venus and Mars semi frequently, so it might be very hard to definitively prove that it is not related.

predicts NO

@LivInTheLookingGlass My intention was to exclude anything that came from Earth, no matter when. If there's doubt as to whether it came from Earth or not, this won't resolve YES.

Does the life have to have originated off Earth?

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Yes.

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