I.e. available for me to create.
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@ShitakiIntaki Not really? I didn’t really mean it as a technical term, I just mean some market where people bet on a distribution of a variable instead of just the final value, for example /NcyRocks/how-many-us-senate-seats-will-be-re
@NcyRocks ah, cool concept.
How would or should someone resolve a probability density function when the outcome will collapse to a single value?
@ShitakiIntaki Good question! If there was one definitive way of doing it, Manifold probably would have implemented it already 😅 The market above split bets into buckets and have out shares in those buckets, sort of like a free-response market. That’s one way of doing it that works sorta okay, I have no doubt there are plenty of others.
@NcyRocks seemed like some people didn't get any payout even from the 49 bucket though, sounded like a feels bad man experience so I decided to buy some NO
@ShitakiIntaki Yeah, it was removed quickly for that reason. This market was worse: /MartinRandall/how-many-eyes-will-i-have-at-market