Will a Democrat win the 2022 US Senate race in Nevada?
resolved Nov 13

Close date updated to 2022-11-09 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-11-10 11:59 pm

Close date updated to 2022-11-16 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

This has been called by a few outlets now, but she's not actually ahead in the vote count yet... I feel like it's worth waiting at least a few more hours to resolve.

@NcyRocks At least the Google vote count shows her ahead 481,659 to 476,676 right now?

predicted YES

@JoshuaB Huh. ABC's keeps flip-flopping, showing her ahead and then not. Must be a bug with their page.

predicted NO

@NcyRocks NYT have her ahead, but haven't called the race yet.

bought Ṁ2,300 of YES

@a All right, might wait a bit then. I mean, it's a pretty sure thing now, but not much harm in waiting.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Arbitraging with NEVADA SENATE RACE: Will Laxalt(R) beat Masto(D).

predicted YES

@a At this point I don't think it's worth arbitraging; just bet on Cortez Masto.

sold Ṁ1,918 of YES

Arbitrage to be made for those with larger bankrolls than I

bought Ṁ374 of YES

PredictIt has this at 96 now, and Nate Silver tweeted that the writing is on the wall

bought Ṁ300 of YES
bought Ṁ140 of NO

cutting my (huge) loses... I made the calculation and new votes are coming in with about +25% for democrats in both Clark and Washoe. There are about 46K and 44K more votes to be counted in those two counties, so will be almost 23K swing (minus perhaps no more than 2K net for Rep from other counties), enough to upset the current difference of 12.5K. Overall +10K or so for democrats (and a lot of angry republicans that will claim that it was stolen...)

bought Ṁ200 of NO

New update: difference went down but still Republican up by 17.2K votes. There are 147K more votes expected in Clark and Washoe (counted 88% and 66%, respectively). So now even a difference of 10% in favor of Democrats in the remaining votes wouldn't be sufficient. Currently, Clark is +5% for democrats and Washoe is -4%. The rest of the counties are super Republican (and smaller). What am I missing?

predicted YES

@egroj There are still a lot of mail-in votes coming (Nevada allows mail-in votes as long as they're posted before the polls close), which will favour the Democrats.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

@NcyRocks sure, but do you think that they favor them >10%? The difference didn't change drastically in 2020 after 75% of votes were accounted. I guess we'll see, I'm literally all-in here

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@egroj you are so over bro

predicted YES

@thadthechad i can burn my cash to make sure it's not viable for you to sell hahaha

bought Ṁ200 of NO

you can see how much the results changed with the reported vote in 2020 here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-nevada-president.html
from 77% reported (which is the current value) it didn't change that much...

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Republican leads by more than 22K votes and the only county that has a democrat advantage has already counted 80% of the expected vote. There are about 146K votes left to count in that county. Even if Democrats win those by a margin of 10% (currently only less than 5%) it would only be less than 15K votes in favor of the Democrats, not enough to upset the 22K advantage, especially because the other counties will add to the Republican advantage. Source for results: https://www.wsj.com/election/2022/general

predicted NO

@egroj All the outstanding votes are in Las Vegas area though so it is gonna tighten for sure

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@egroj The votes still to be counted are mostly mail-in, though. The NY Times predicts +30k Dem votes from Clark County and +10k votes from Washoe County, plenty to overcome the current ~23k gap. What's most convincing to me is that their prediction has stayed slightly blue the entire time, even as the total went from +13% Dem to +3% GOP. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

predicted NO

@PeterBennett the forecast stopped updating today at 4am, it has stayed slightly blue because it has not moved since 4am.

I also do not understand the estimates of votes remaining, they have for Clark county 52% for Dem and 34% for Rep, where are the other 14%? Are you accounting for those in the +30K, or just subtracting their 85K for Dem (52%) from 56K for Rep (14%). Same in Washoe, there is 17% no accounted in the estimates.

predicted YES

@egroj There also haven't been any major updates in votes since 4 AM, so I think that's irrelevant. The total and percent counted have stayed the same since 2-3 AM.

I am a little confused about that gap, though. My guess is that their prediction is accurate and the percentage is an error with the system? I'm not accounting for that, but I don't see a reason to think it would favor either party. It makes me trust those predicted counts a little less, but they seem to agree with the overall prediction, which I don't have a reason to mistrust.

predicted NO

@PeterBennett you're right it hasn't moved in a while. And now to add to the confusion NYT removed their estimated votes remaining from Nevada. What is true right now is that there are 250.5K more votes expected to be counted, and the lead for republicans is 22.5K. So the remaining votes would have to have more than 9% difference for democrats. I think that will be very difficult given that even in Clark the difference is not more than 5%, but as you said the mail in votes might be a huge swing

bought Ṁ65 of NO

Unclear to me why this market is moving in favor of the Dems?

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DavidDavidson but they stopped forecasting at 4am...

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@DavidDavidson in fact NYT is also reporting the advantage of the Republican if you click on the link in the neddle https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html