During the Manifest 2024 opening Manifold Theatre, I won a crystal that can be redeemed for one free Crystal-tier market.
Thatโs a LOT of free liquidity! Donโt want that to go to waste.
So what will I put it towards?
Can be an existing question or a new one that I create.
1,000
3.00๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน554 | |
| 2 | แน342 | |
| 3 | แน278 | |
| 4 | แน159 | |
| 5 | แน112 |
๐จ๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ปโโ๏ธ๐๐๐๐จ๐ปโ๐ป๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ๐คโ
Still considering? I wait with held breath! (I'm dead)
As another idea, what about something to do with US government budget over the next four years? Trump/Elon are claiming they will cut trillions from the budget. You could do something like "Will Trump/Elon cut at least X amount from the budget" and the description would be something like "Resolves YES if the US budget for X year is less than X dollars"
New idea that I find a bit more compelling than the one on my thesis:
โWhere will my next paper be published?โ
I think itโd be helpful to have people follow along as I work on the next stage of my work and review it to see whether they think a given conference would accept it. Maybe some would even want to collaborate to make a profit!
Itโs shorter-term and has a way for me to close the market before resolution (before the date for notification of acceptance) so I can get some liquidity back and put it towards my next work.
If someone wants to try to wring a market out of my latest paper, you are much more than welcome: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HrMZE2H2onkOuZXw7GrrBNxz28mPTe5v/view?usp=drive_link
You can sponsor the World Dog Surfing Championship market! It'll close early so you can get most of the mana back. Sponsorship means you get to claim prominent placement on the market ("Brought to you by X"), and can add some ads to the title, description, comments, and/or banner photo.
This is my PhD topic. I came up with the hypothesis that since Transformers can emulate any arbitrary Turing machine, itโs possible that they can be modeled as implementing an approximation of Solomonoff Induction, i.e. a Bayesian mixture of all possible Turing machines. I havenโt totally rejected or accepted this hypothesis (and itโs a little ill-defined anyway) but I currently think they come closer to implementing some Bayesian mixture of some other model of computation, possibly Markov chains. I have some other ideas, which could make one heck of a multi choice market!
There are a lot of smart people in AI on Manifold, and Iโm sure they could give me some interesting ideas and discussions at the very least.
Iโd want to give a heck of a lot of care to the resolution criteria, although I suppose I could just put a disclaimer upfront that it will resolve to my subjective opinionโฆ
Ideas and impressions encouraged. If I had to choose a market idea right this second, this is what Iโd go with.
I will say that this idea has the important upside of it actually mattering that it's crystal. Being crystal doesn't affect a marriage market much because people won't have much insight regardless. Being crystal won't affect "Will Biden get elected" because people were going to aggressively bet on that anyways.
One thing that might be useful to consider: long term markets are barely helped by more subsidy. If because of interest rates it isn't worthwhile to buy YES on a 100 mana liquidity market that will definitely resolve YES in 2030, it still isn't worthwhile with 1 million mana in liquidity. the latter case just means the market is trailing the "correct probability" more. so I'd think shorter term markets are better, and even better when you can close the market before some reveal of what the resolution will be, so that you can recoup some of the subsidy mana
@Bayesian So something that will be revealed at a particular nearby point in time might work well. Thatโs a point in favour of an election market, although that seems kind of lame.
@NcyRocks yeah, unfortunately current manifold market mechanism seems underpowered for a lot of really interesting and important questions. but yeah those would work well.