https://www.safe.ai/blog/forecasting

Some kind of way it is not true in a common sense way. Things that would resolve this yes (draft):

• We look at the data and it turns out that information was leaked to the LLM somehow

• The questions were selected in a way that chose easy questions

• The date of forecast was somehow chosen so as to benefit the LLM

• This doesn't continue working over the next year of questions (more accurately than last year of metaculus crowd, ie the crowd can't win because it gets more accurate)

• The AI was just accessing forecasts and parroting them.

https://x.com/DanHendrycks/status/1833152719756116154