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MANIFOLD
Will Jaan Tallinn be found guilty of fraud before 2024?
5
Ṁ130Ṁ400
resolved Nov 14
Resolved
N/A

This resolves "Yes" if the named individual is found guilty in court. Or if there is a community concensus that includes me with a 99% confidence that they have done fraud. eg credible accusations with evidence from credible sources.

It resolves "No" otherwise. Also, If the community consensus and I disagree and there is no guilty verdict, the question resolves "No"


There are markets about a range of public figures here: https://manifold.markets/group/scandal-markets

Nov 14, 2:18pm: Will Jaan Tallinn be responsible for a fraud scandal before 2024? → Will Jaan Tallinn be found guilty of fraud before 2024?

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99% confidence. Credible accusations from a credible source.

Seems worth changing the wording to make it more explicit that this is a resolution criterion (so that nobody misreads it as a claim that there were such accusations)

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