Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns on or before December 31, 2026. Or if a probiotic supplementation distribution charity is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline. This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.

It resolves "No" otherwise.

The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the "probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns " row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.

Probiotic supplementation can be distributed for the purpose of child mortality reduction or other purposes. The funds must go towards distribution of probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns, not a charity that largely does other work.

-- Note --

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-- Background --

GiveWell has recommended grants to over 10 charities over the years. They are currently investigating 12 charity areas with other areas of research in the pipeline including probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns

The following sections are quoted from GiveWell’s explanation of the topic:

Mortality rates are high among preterm newborns. Two causes of death in this population are necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and sepsis. Supplementation with probiotics (bacteria that are thought to confer health benefits) has been hypothesized to prevent NEC and sepsis and to reduce all-cause mortality among preterm newborns by suppressing the growth of disease-causing bacteria, limiting the spread of these bacteria outside of the intestine and enhancing immune function.

There have been a large number of small-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) examining the impact of probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns on all-cause mortality in low- and middle-income countries, as well as higher-income countries. These provide strong evidence that probiotic supplementation lowers all-cause mortality among preterm newborns and that this may occur through its impact on NEC and sepsis.

For more information, it may be worth reviewing: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5728295/pdf/bmjopen-2017-017638.pdf

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Estimated a 24% base rate among programs GiveWell listed in 2017 but had not given a grant too yet (https://www.givewell.org/research/intervention-reports/august-2017-version)

@DismalScientist but the bottom line from GiveWell is currently "Bottom line: We will likely continue to consider probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns as we prioritize programs to recommend funding in the future. We may reach out to organizations implementing this intervention to learn more about costs and funding opportunities."