Will there be an event that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?
46%
chance

Dec 2, 12:32pm: Will EA suffer an event of reputational harm comparable to the FTX crash before 2030? → Will there be an event that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

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NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting NO at 61%

What will it be?

OzzieGooen avatar
Ozzie Gooen
bought Ṁ10 of YES

"suffer an event of reputational harm comparable with"
This could mean a few things.
1. There's an event that's similarly as bad as the FTX in total, that has some not-negative harm to EA.
2. There's some event with similar harms as the FTX event will have to EA, even though the absolute damage done by that event might be very different.

For example, a major depression with tiny connections to EA might be considered for (1), but an EA who does a sexual scandal might be considered for (2).

I think that either (1) or (2) are very likely in the future. Lots of events in total, worse than FTX crash. For EA's reputation, it's very possible this won't even be net-bad.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Young
is predicting NO at 61%

@OzzieGooen What do you think would be the best version of this question for providing useful information and a way to deal with crises before they happen?

OzzieGooen avatar
Ozzie Gooen
is predicting YES at 61%

@NathanpmYoung I'd go with definition #2 here.

Will there be an event that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

IsaacKing avatar

Why is this so much lower than mine? I think they're asking about similar things, and yours gives it an extra 2 years to happen.

lu avatar
lu
bought Ṁ5 of YES