@NathanpmYoung
Would multiple separate allegations of misconduct across different organisations be bundled into one event?

How would you deal with the situation where a relatively minor scandal is the last straw that leads to a lot of harm? E.g. a member of an EA organisation embezzled a small amount of money. This leads to a media frenzy that carries most of its weight from pointing out the FTX scandal, weird philosophical writings, or sexual misconduct cases.

I'm not sure how directionally bad the FTX issue will be for EA. Easy to imagine a bunch of positive aspects, especially as movies and stuff happen.

@OzzieGooen Feels like its equally easy to imagine a load of people first hearing about EA in a negative valence way.

I think it'll probably happen before the end of this year, if we're being honest. Philosophers are generally prone to having opinions and decision-making processes that conflict with those of general intuition. It's easy fodder for media and makes it hard to garner any sort of widespread public support. Considering that the EA movement largely has its roots in philosophical opinions and decision-making processes, I find it extremely unlikely that the movement will make it all the way to 2030 without another major event that mars the movement's reputation even more.

@CadeMataya philosophers' opinions don't tend to have quite the same wide-ranging impact as the loss of billions of dollars though, so are unlikely to receive a similar amount of media coverage compared to the bankruptcy of FTX

@finnhambly I agree, though what I was aiming to say was that actions and consequences that flow from following philosophers' opinions are likely to result in more events of similar magnitude to the FTX fiasco.

@CadeMataya At what odds would you bet in favor of it happening before the end of this year?

Do we know how much FTX harmed EA reputation? I guess we will know in a bit.

What will it be?

"suffer an event of reputational harm comparable with"
This could mean a few things.
1. There's an event that's similarly as bad as the FTX in total, that has some not-negative harm to EA.
2. There's some event with similar harms as the FTX event will have to EA, even though the absolute damage done by that event might be very different.

For example, a major depression with tiny connections to EA might be considered for (1), but an EA who does a sexual scandal might be considered for (2).

I think that either (1) or (2) are very likely in the future. Lots of events in total, worse than FTX crash. For EA's reputation, it's very possible this won't even be net-bad.

@OzzieGooen What do you think would be the best version of this question for providing useful information and a way to deal with crises before they happen?

@NathanpmYoung I'd go with definition #2 here.

Will there be an event that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Why is this so much lower than mine? I think they're asking about similar things, and yours gives it an extra 2 years to happen.

@IsaacKing Arb

@IsaacKing this market has more restrictive resolution criteria. An event that does some harm to EA's rep seems more likely than one that does at least as much harm as FTX.