Will core EAs respond publicly in depth about the FTX crisis before July 2023?
resolved Jul 31

Will a majority (eg 4/6) of the following orgs/people release a longform comment (including but not limited to writing or an EAG talk) on their thoughts about the FTX crisis that engages with their respective org/person should have done differently:

  • Will MacAskill (minded to resolve yes)

  • OpenPhilanthropy (minded to resolve yes)

  • CEA

  • Toby Ord (minded to resolve yes)

  • 80k (minded to resolve yes)


  • Open to suggestions of other ones.

A piece by Will could count on behalf of several, but it has to actuall discuss that org's decisions/personal reflections to do so.

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predicted NO

I don't think the market should update significantly on the basis of Will's shortform post since it is very explicitly a shortform post and the description very explicitly says longform.

Either it should have resolved YES a long time ago (say, if 3/6 rather than 4/6 is sufficient) or, if it were to close today, it should resolve NO. My 2c.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon So I am gonna rule that it's longform, I mean a post of some length. It is.

@NathanpmYoung What is shortform then?

predicted YES

@NicoDelon A tweet, a paragraph.

The EA shortform is, often, longform content

@NathanpmYoung Gee if that’s the longform, in-depth response we expected it’s quite cheap.

@NathanpmYoung I’m out of this market. The resolution criteria are awfully fluid.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon You write good questions, but I struggle to be clear. Feel free to write versions you are happy with. I doubt I'm gonna be loads more robust than I currently am.

I could have firmed this one up over time though.

@NathanpmYoung No worries. Just holding you to the standards of the badge. It’s just play money!

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Okay, well I would prefer a few more compliments alongside the criticism. I think I create and run a lot of useful articles in this space so the fact that most of the feedback is negative is hard.

Also I think your just wrong about shortform longform

@NathanpmYoung Okay cool. I guess that’s why they call it shortform.

More generally, I’m sorry if the feedback hurts. I think you’re a smart and fun guy who creates a lot of interesting questions — oh, and I liked your response to Will's post a lot. But you often handle your markets sloppily and just because you happen to be well known and liked in the community doesn’t mean you should be insulated from criticism that most of us are taking. Take it as an encouragement to do better!

@NicoDelon I'm also confused why you think the screenshot supports your interpretation since Will's post is 764 words long.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon I don't ask to be insulated from criticism. But I think the current process between us isn't really working. Also I just don't find it very fun.

On the short form longform thing maybe I was just wrong about the definition and hence maybe resolution. Unsure what to do there.

@NathanpmYoung Forget about the shortform, water under the bridge. I'm happy to abstain from leaving honest reviews that hurt from now on. I don't want to make you upset and would like to find a process that works better and is more fun.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon I want honest reviews. But I guess maybe every third one I'd appreciate saying something you are grateful for.

If you think I think you're grateful, I don't feel it. And that inaccuracy is worth correcting too.

@NathanpmYoung I don’t think you’re grateful nor would I expect you to be. I hereby pledge to boost my positive feelings towards the next market I get to review!

@NicoDelon FWIW the reason you’re seeing many reviews of mine is because I often bet on your questions because I think they’re interesting questions. Your recent markets have kept me interested so you should expect an influx of positive reviews if you resolve them.

Will MacAskill has done 2 things sparately but within a short time period:
- Responded in a shortform article about what knew about FTX fraudulent activities and how this affected his level of trust. (around 450 words were roughly about this, the rest about him planning on stepping down from Effective Ventures UK)
- Published a long, in-depth article about "Decision-making and decentralisation in EA"

My feeling is that this comes pretty close to fulfilling the criteria.

@TobiasHaeberli The short post is really short and mostly rehashes the early (and, to me, evasive) defense. The long post barely touches on the FTX crisis.

@NicoDelon The comment is over 750 words, so I don't think it's "really short". It also contains important new content, including changes to Will's role as a public figure and EV board member

predicted NO

@livinginthesnow It is literally a "shortform" post. The market description states "longform" as a resolution criterion. 750 words is not long, sorry.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon Don't think you're necessarily wrong in that this maybe should resolve No at the moment. It feels a bit misleading to just quote the "longform" part of the description, since it's referring to a "longform comment".

predicted YES
predicted YES

@TobiasHaeberli I was reading that 😠

predicted NO

@TobiasHaeberli I wonder if 'longform' vs. 'shortform' is the relevant technical distinction on the EA forum, the term 'comment' being incidental. Maybe @NathanpmYoung can clarify.

predicted YES

Will MacAskill has also shared a draft document called "Will MacAskill should not be the face of EA" on the EA Forum. There's a small section about public perception of him and SBF in it.

@TobiasHaeberli Thanks. Though I personally find it frustrating that he keeps being so evasive about FTX and SBF. I get it; he probably has lawyers telling him to say as little as possible. Still, that doesn’t do much to assuage concerns.