Will core EAs respond publicly in depth about the FTX crisis before July 2023?

closes Jul 19

36%

chance

ALL

Will a majority of the following orgs/people release a longform comment (including but not limited to writing or an EAG talk) on their thoughts about the FTX crisis that engages with their respective org/person should have done differently:

Will MacAskill
OpenPhilanthropy
CEA
Toby Ord (resolves postive already imo)
80k
FTXFF
Open to suggestions of other ones.

A piece by Will could count on behalf of several, but it has to actuall discuss that org's decisions/personal reflections to do so.

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Tobias Häberlisold Ṁ11 of NO

Out of this market because I don't have a good sense how it would resolve.

Any former FTXFF employees/advisors can't resolve FTXFF as positive, because they stepped back. Correct?

Karnofsky commenting on it while on a leave of absence would not resolve OpenPhilanthropy as positive. Correct?

Lorenzosold Ṁ37 of YES

I had forgotten that I have no idea how these markets get resolved (who is core? what's in-depth?), cashing out

Nathan Youngis predicting YES at 42%

@Lorenzo There is resolution criteria.

berealisticis predicting NO at 29%

I feel a bit concerned about how you're going to resolve this, since you're betting in this market while the resolution criteria are quite slippery.

I think it's worth pinning down the EA orgs you're going to resolve this with, since adding new ones could easily tip the balance.

Also, if/when Ben West publishes his post, will it count even if it's not explicitly written on behalf of CEA?

Finally, where is Toby Ord's longform comment? I can't find it from Googling.

Nico D

@berealistic I think Ord’s comment was a presentation at a recent EAGx event.

berealisticsold Ṁ96 of NO

@NicoDelon ok well I'm not sure how that counts as releasing a longform comment, so I'm out until the operationalisation is clearer

also, did Open Philanthropy just get added to the list, or did I miss it when I read through it before?

Nathan Youngis predicting YES at 44%

@berealistic It was in the original criteria.

Thomas Kwabought Ṁ85 of NO

FTXFF no longer exists, CEA probably doesn't want unnecessary legal risk, and it's unclear 80k made any mistakes. Also conditional on someone from most of these orgs speaking it will probably be in a personal capacity.

Nathan Young

Who else is in the right category to hear from here?

Nico D

Combine the relative dearth of public response with the repeated refusal to comment (as described in the TIME piece), and it becomes credible that they all have lawyers telling them to shut up, and probably not for no reason.