If the EA forum wiki changes to allow much more informative summaries (rather than very short introductions) before 2023, will wiki pages get 5x as many views compared to the rest of the forum as they currently do by 2024?
5
13
Jan 1
24%
Forum norms change, wiki traffic 5x as a % of total traffic by 2024
2%
Forum norms don't change, wiki traffic 5x as a % of total traffic by 2024
11%
Forum norms change, wiki traffic does not 5x as a % of total traffic by 2024
45%
Forum norms don't change, wiki traffic does not 5x as a % of total traffic by 2024
9%
Wiki traffic rises a lot before 2023

Feel free to correct this:

I will only resolve to options I've created.

Conditions:

1) The EA forum team allows me (or anyone) to make forum pages which are broad summaries, rather than short introductions to topics. They allow new topics perhaps without many posts. Until this happens wiki page views stay roughly on their previous trend as % of total Forum page views. This must happen before the end of the year.

2) the wiki pages get more than 5x the % of total page views they did before the change. If there is no change it's compared to Jan 1st 2024.


Compare for instance:

My article on the LessWrong wiki about Effective Altrusim, containing a section on criticisms: https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/effective-altruism

And the EA wiki article on criticisms of EA. This is not an ususually bad article in my opinion. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/criticism-of-effective-altruism

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1) Do we not already allow you to do this?

2) Is the 5x for only pages you edit, or for wiki pages as a whole?

bought Ṁ5 of Forum norms change, ...

Also I can give you some inside info:

  • wiki page views are around 3-4% of total

  • front page views are 28% of total

  • most of the rest is posts

based on this I've bet against the 5x increase, on the grounds that wiki views would end up as like half of front-page views, which seems high. (I'm assuming the 5x is overall bc you mentioned adding new topics, in which case a relative 5x increase wouldn't make sense)

more inside info: we are planning other changes to the topic system, which might independently cause the relative % of page views to rise around the same time. even so I think 5x is high

@WilliamHoward currently people expressly forbid me from trying to make wiki pages as good summaries as possible. They say the should be short overviews. If you stop doing that I'll happily improve them.

@WilliamHoward I think page views could probably be mostly wiki if they were easy enough to edit. it's a very natural way to represent current state of knowledge, with comments then allowing discussion.

I think this is dominated by the growth of the forum as a whole

@EdoArad Shouldn't forum traffic stay steady as a %?

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