If passed, will SB 1047 "cover" models/fine-tuned models from more than 10 organisations in 2029?
13
Ṁ5125
2029
55%
chance

If the bill is vetoed by Newsom, resolves, n/a.

According to the "covered" model and "covered model derivative" definitions (includes both but no double counting of organsiations).

(e) (1) “Covered model” means either of the following:

(A) Before January 1, 2027, “covered model” means either of the following:

(i) An artificial intelligence model trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations, the cost of which exceeds one hundred million dollars ($100,000,000) when calculated using the average market prices of cloud compute at the start of training as reasonably assessed by the developer.

(ii) An artificial intelligence model created by fine-tuning a covered model using a quantity of computing power equal to or greater than three times 10^25 integer or floating-point operations, the cost of which, as reasonably assessed by the developer, exceeds ten million dollars ($10,000,000) if calculated using the average market price of cloud compute at the start of fine-tuning.

(B) (i) Except as provided in clause (ii), on and after January 1, 2027, “covered model” means any of the following:

(I) An artificial intelligence model trained using a quantity of computing power determined by the Government Operations Agency pursuant to Section 11547.6 of the Government Code, the cost of which exceeds one hundred million dollars ($100,000,000) when calculated using the average market price of cloud compute at the start of training as reasonably assessed by the developer.

(II) An artificial intelligence model created by fine-tuning a covered model using a quantity of computing power that exceeds a threshold determined by the Government Operations Agency, the cost of which, as reasonably assessed by the developer, exceeds ten million dollars ($10,000,000) if calculated using the average market price of cloud compute at the start of fine-tuning.

(ii) If the Government Operations Agency does not adopt a regulation governing subclauses (I) and (II) of clause (i) before January 1, 2027, the definition of “covered model” in subparagraph (A) shall be operative until the regulation is adopted.

(2) On and after January 1, 2026, the dollar amount in this subdivision shall be adjusted annually for inflation to the nearest one hundred dollars ($100) based on the change in the annual California Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers published by the Department of Industrial Relations for the most recent annual period ending on December 31 preceding the adjustment.

(f) “Covered model derivative” means any of the following:

(1) An unmodified copy of a covered model.

(2) A copy of a covered model that has been subjected to post-training modifications unrelated to fine-tuning.

(3) (A) (i) Before January 1, 2027, a copy of a covered model that has been fine-tuned using a quantity of computing power not exceeding three times 10^25 integer or floating point operations, the cost of which, as reasonably assessed by the developer, exceeds ten million dollars ($10,000,000) if calculated using the average market price of cloud compute at the start of fine-tuning.

(ii) On and after January 1, 2027, a copy of a covered model that has been fine-tuned using a quantity of computing power not exceeding a threshold determined by the Government Operations Agency, the cost of which, as reasonably assessed by the developer, exceeds ten million dollars ($10,000,000) if calculated using the average market price of cloud compute at the start of fine-tuning.

(B) If the Government Operations Agency does not adopt a regulation governing clause (ii) of subparagraph (A) by January 1, 2027, the quantity of computing power specified in clause (i) of subparagraph (A) shall continue to apply until the regulation is adopted.

(4) A copy of a covered model that has been combined with other software.

Fine print:

The organisation is the one that owns or has fine tuned the model. If OpenAI has a covered model that is 1 (not 2, counting microsoft). For Microsoft to count as an additional 1, it would have to have it's own model or a large enough fine tuned model or be considered to, by the State of California.

OpenAI is one organisation, despite technically being a cluster of orgs. Different national versions of the same company do not count.

Needing clarification:

- What if Google Deepmind and a different seprate alphabet org both have covered models? I am minded to say that's 2, but am interested in your takes.

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This discussion on AI regulation, especially around "covered models" and their derivatives, is intriguing. It seems that by 2029, models from more than 10 organizations could be covered, though there are still questions about companies under the same corporation, like Google DeepMind and Alphabet.

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bought Ṁ200 YES

This seems crazy low, I'd put the fair value at like 80%? Eg I think >10 orgs have GPT-4 level models by now! And 5 years is a long time in AI.