Resolution criteria
Refers to California SB 53 (2025–26), the Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence Act (AI transparency/safety), signed Sept 29, 2025. Verification: Governor’s announcement and enrolled text. (gov.ca.gov)
Resolves YES if a U.S. federal statute is enacted and in effect that regulates frontier/AI model safety, transparency, or incident reporting in such a way as to supercede or preempt major provisions of SB 53. Verification: the enacted statute’s text on Congress.gov. Executive orders, agency rules, funding-conditional incentives without express preemption, or court decisions do not count. If such a statute is enacted but stayed nationwide as of the deadline, this resolves NO. (congress.gov)
Otherwise resolves NO at the deadline. If SB 53 is repealed or materially altered before any qualifying federal preemption takes effect, resolves NO.
Background
SB 53 requires large “frontier” AI developers to publish safety frameworks, report critical incidents to Cal OES, and includes whistleblower protections; violations can incur civil penalties. Signed into law 2025‑09‑29. (gov.ca.gov)
A House-passed reconciliation bill in May 2025 included a 10‑year moratorium preempting state AI laws, but the Senate removed the provision on July 1, 2025; the final law signed July 4, 2025 did not include AI preemption. As of Oct 1, 2025 there is no federal statute preempting SB 53. (reuters.com) However, SB53 does contain a provision stating that it will not apply to the extent that it is preempted by federal law.[4]
Considerations
“SB 53” is ambiguous across sessions: a different SB 53 (2023–24) concerned firearm storage and was signed in 2024; this market is about the 2025–26 AI bill. (gov.ca.gov)
Traders should watch for any federal AI bill adding explicit state-law preemption; prior attempts were dropped, but new proposals could emerge. (natlawreview.com)
@MaxE That was a mistake in the AI-generated text that I didn't catch. Feel free to sell and I'll refund you any loss.