Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?
80%
chance
Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this. The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which I got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21): ————— Linch 1:14 PM Proposed bet operationalization: "a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD. Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'" Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M. Joel Becker 5:17 PM Needs to explicitly exclude crypto too With that, I take the bet at $10 :) Linch 9:00 PM right excluding crypto and inheritances ————— This market resolves to YES if Linchuan wins the bet and NO if Joel wins, according to Linchuan’s and Joel’s reports. If the two disagree on who won the bet, the market resolves to N/A.
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WilliamKiely avatar

The Tweet isn't public.

WilliamKiely avatar

@WilliamKiely I just saw the colon after the Twitter link, so never mind. (Also looks like you can't delete comments anymore.)

GeorgeVii avatar
"<100M" - this means <100 manifold dollars right?
NathanHelmBurger avatar
Nathan
bought Ṁ20 of YES
2031 is a long way off, in humans-existing and tech-advancing years. Billionaire will likely be a somewhat lower bar by then. I'm suspecting something related to AI will result in unexpected (by conventional economy) wealth shifts.
Austin avatar
Austin
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Fingers crossed!
EliasEdgren avatar
Elias Edgren
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Effective Altruist https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_altruism
Undox avatar
Undox
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Explain it like I am 5? What is an EA for starters?
tcheasdfjkl avatar
tcheasdfjkl
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Q: does "means other than crypto" exclude things like "founding FTX"?