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MANIFOLD
When will I be free of my diamond curse ๐Ÿ˜ฉ? (Leagues)
16
แน€1kแน€9.8k
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
YES
Dec 2025 (i.e. I promote or demote in season 31)
Resolved
YES
Jan 2026 or earlier (i.e. I promote or demote in season 32 or earlier)
Resolved
YES
February 2026 or earlier (i.e. I promote or demote in season 33 or earlier)
Resolved
YES
March 2026 or earlier (i.e. I promote or demote in season 34 or earlier)
Resolved
YES
April 2026 or earlier (i.e. I promote or demote in season 35 or earlier)
Resolved
YES
December 2026 or earlier (i.e. I promote or demote in season 43 or earlier)

I've been in diamond consecutively since season 22: February (i.e. 10 seasons), how much longer will I be stuck here?

Answers resolve NO as their dates are reached

All remaining answers resolve YES the next time I promote or demote

I won't trade in this market

I have no intentions of notably changing my trading habits in the foreseeable future, though I make no promises that I won't

Full league history:


Related market:
/Nat/i-promote-to-masters-before-demotin

Market context
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@Nat Unlucky league my friend, you would have survived in most other diamond leagues

@Mochi Indeed, when I created this market I was kinda expecting to be in diamond a decent bit longer rip, but alas

@Mochi 2800 mana not enough is about as rough as it gets in diamond
947 was enough to avoid demotion in my diamond league

Perhaps the rational strategy would be to bet your balance on a coin-flip market? A 50% chance to double your profits might just do it...

@SqrtMinusOne Coin flips are usually unranked and don't count towards league profits.

@4fa there are high variance ranked markets near 50 per cent, though finding one with the right time frame might be very difficult ... and enough liquidity

@SqrtMinusOne Oh yeah I've definitely considered betting it all on a 50/50 and seeing if I can get there with luck alone, but where's the fun in that?

10 446 to 169 is a wide gamut.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen lol yep, but hey at least I've never finished negative haha

@Nat I was demoted once, going kamikaze for Masters, and crashing hard. But it was as I planned it. Never had any illusions I would make it. Didn't ever go above my fuzzy ratio of single bet exposure in comparison to networth.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah I've considered trying the same but I kinda like seeing if I'll ever get there just going at my own relatively risk-averse pace

@Nat That is where I am at, having tried, I totally got it out of my system.