🏅 Top traders

Good news, the curse is broken!

Bad news, twas broken by demoting 😢

Anyone know if demoting with 2800M earned in diamond is a record?

i'll bet it isn't but rip rip

https://manifold.markets/leagues/4/diamond/fierce-owls 2478

https://manifold.markets/leagues/6/diamond/spicy-alchemists close (1 away from 2983)

https://manifold.markets/leagues/8/diamond/zealous-griffins close (1 away from 3237

https://manifold.markets/leagues/9/diamond/bayesian-oracles 2738

https://manifold.markets/leagues/10/diamond/brilliant-diviners 2852

https://manifold.markets/leagues/10/diamond/volatile-sphinxes 3430

https://manifold.markets/leagues/11/diamond/degenerate-beasts 3753

https://manifold.markets/leagues/11/diamond/tenacious-ogres 4780

https://manifold.markets/leagues/13/diamond/cryptic-illusionists 4849

https://manifold.markets/leagues/13/diamond/cryptic-titans 10673

https://manifold.markets/leagues/14/volatile-banshees 15311

pretty sure there's nothing higher after that

15311 to demote is kinda crazy tbh

@Bayesian Holy crap yeah that is wild

ohhh it was when trader bonuses were huge and counted for leagues. that's why the scores were so inflated. then they stopped counting for leagues the month after that and to not demote in some leagues you had to have lost less than 200 mana https://manifold.markets/leagues/15/diamond/futuristic-sirens

@Bayesian Ahhhh okay yeah that makes sense, so hey, maybe I have the record since massive trader bonuses stopped counting for leagues lol?

Huh. Did they change the way demotion works, or are there wrinkles I don't understand? In my current diamond league, it appears that finishing 8th or lower will demote me. But in your record, I see some finishes in 13th and 14th place that did not result in demotion (along with a couple of even lower ones that did).

@BorisBartlog It appears so. I already thought: tough league this month.

@BorisBartlog yeah I've always wondered how the demotion cut off is determined, it seems to vary from season to season and even between specific leagues within a given season (eg in Contrarian Zombies this month it's 9th place or lower that gets demoted, vs the 8th place or lower for your and our leagues; despite Contrarian Zombies also being a Diamond league (in fact it seems like 9th and lower is the more common demotion cut off among all the diamond groups this season))

It's especially rough for @4fa and I's league this season where even M2000+ isn't enough to keep you from demoting

@BorisBartlog okay I was having a look through and it's always the bottom 10 in diamond that demote, so because there are only 17-18 people in each diamond group this season, the cutoff point for each group is below 7th/below 8th

Whereas in previous seasons there's been as many as 25 people per diamond group hence the demotion cutoff would be below 15th place

Also, there's always 9 groups in diamond - so ultimately the cutoff is determined by the total number of people in diamond

@Nat So if there's fewer people in Diamond it also becomes harder to stay in Diamond? Seems like an oversight. 🤔

@4fa Yeah I had the same thought, I kinda want to look through and figure out the cutoffs for each league and how the dynamics that go into determining how many people are in each league etc play out

But also I can't actually be bothered to so eh

@4fa Okay so I had a quick look and...
By my count, there are always 9 groups in diamond, and the top 2 in each group always promote, and the bottom 10 always demote - meaning that's (10+2)*9=108 people leaving diamond each season.

Then I can't quite figure out how the number of people who demote from Masters is determined but it seems to be about 18 (i.e. ~18 people joining diamond)

And there seems to be about 16 groups in platinum with the top 5 from each group promoting (i.e. ~80 people joining diamond)

Meaning that if things continue, diamond will continue to lose 108-18-80=10 people per season, which divided by the 9 groups means at current pace we'll keep having one less person per diamond group season after season

Update: Okay so I just had a look and if you go far enough back (literally just to the start of this year oops) there did used to be more groups in diamond (it's just been stable at 9 groups for a bit), i.e. maybe we're due for the number of diamond groups decreasing again?

Also, I haven't looked through enough to say for certain but I'm guessing this ongoing reduction of people in diamond is downstream of reduced active users?

Meowdy! This is a neat puzzle — will they leap to Masters before slipping back? I’ll dig into the league history and peek back later tonight for fresh whisker insights. Stay tuned!

Oh, interesting… 😃