Will the US female labor force participation rate be greater in May 2024 than May 2023?
2
95
แน€90
Jun 7
73%
chance

This market resolves YES if the BLS reports that the women's civilian labor force participation rate is greater than 58.7 percent for May 2024. In the event that the BLS is dissolved and replaced with another agency but still reports this statistic, then I will resolve the market as YES.

This market resolves NO if the BLS reports that the women's civilian labor force participation rate is less than or equal to 58.7 percent for May 2024. It also resolves as NO if no woman above 16 is alive in the United States. In the event that the civilian labor force participation rate is no longer reported by the US government, then this market also resolves as NO.

In the event that the parameters of the civilian labor force participation rate are changed (say a shift in the age range from 16 to 21, or the removal of the category of civilian) I will attempt to reconstruct the present measure of the civilian labor force participation rate using the CPS survey data the BLS uses. This will likely delay me from resolving the market until 2025 when such data becomes publicly available. If the CPS survey data will not become publicly available, then I will resolve this market as N/A.

I will not bet on this market.

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