This market was inspired by this article on Axios. Presently many musicians are already unionized with the American Federation of Music, but this principally covers orchestra and theater musicians. Moreover, many recording artists are already covered by SAG-AFTRA (Rolling Stone). As a result, this market will be a little more vibe based.

This market resolves YES if many mainstream musicians become union members. Evidence of this could be an article describing the process by which musicians became unionized or reporting about various mainstream artists identifying as union members. Another piece of evidence would be statistical data showing an increase (where the baseline is 2023) in the share of musicians who are union members. If at least one of these things happens before 2030, then I will probably resolve this market YES. There may be additional pieces of evidence which compel me to resolve this yes, but I cannot thing of any now.

As this market is very vibes based, I definitely will not bet on it.