
Will The Smiths reform before 2030?
Will The Smiths reform before 2030?
3
1kṀ13002030
16%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve 'Yes' if Morrissey and Johnny Marr perform together as The Smiths before 1st January 2030.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will The Smiths be inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame before the end of 2028?
52% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2030?
87% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2030?
90% chance
If Oasis reforms, will the band stay together for a full year?
89% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2060?
57% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2060?
58% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2050?
58% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2050?
63% chance
Will the Foo Fighters reform by the end of 2025?
74% chance
Will Will Smith be alive through the end of 2040?
71% chance