Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030? | Manifold

Will an openly trans Republican be elected to a U.S. state or federal government position by the end of 2030?

62

1kṀ3863

2031

19%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market resolves YES if an openly trans Republican is elected to a state or federal government position in the 2030 election or earlier. This market resolves NO if that does not happen.

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Related questions

Will a Republican come out as trans in office before 2030?

Will a trans person be president of the USA by 2030?

Will it be illegal to be openly transgender in any part of the United States by 2030?

Will there be a publicly detrans elected official at the state or federal level in the US before 2029?

Will US state policies on transgender people be significantly more polarized at the beginning of 2026?

Will I consider the transgender rights movement in America to have “basically won” by the end of 2025?

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Will any country in the world have a transgender head of state by 2050?

Will an explicitly racist or sexist politician get elected to major office in America by the end of 2030?

Before the end of 2035, will plurality become as common in the US as transgenderness was in 2022?

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