I happened to see some discussion on Twitter today of Aurora Innovation, a company working on autonomous vehicle control systems with an emphasis on commercial trucking.

Their website and most of the press about them is pretty fluffy and sales-y, but as far as I can tell, the main thing they plan to deliver eventually is the "Aurora Driver," which seems to be basically a control system and a set of sensors that can be installed in any vehicle (either a passenger car or a large truck). They then plan to offer commercial shipping services and ride-hailing services powered by that system.

Their key goal right now seems to be that they intend to make the "Aurora Driver" system commercially available in some way by the end of 2024. I'm not entirely clear on what exactly that means, but I think they're saying that they intend to get safety clearance to install it in a small fleet of trucks, and have those trucks run simple routes along a couple of major highways in Texas. And their latest press as of now seems to be saying that they believe the control system is fully tested, and they just need to convince regulatory authorities to approve it.

So, the goal of this market is just to predict whether this company is going to succeed in delivering a commercial product by their target date.

I'm happy to accept amendments to this market by people who know more about this company or this sector than I do, but as a first pass, this resolves YES if:

• Vehicles with a control system produced by Aurora Innovation (or any successor company) are operating on public roads somewhere, without a human driver present.

• Members of the public can hire those vehicles in some way (e.g., to haul freight, or as passengers). Or, if people can just purchase an Aurora Driver system and install it in their own vehicles, that would also count.

Resolves NO otherwise. I will not be betting in this market.