Will Aurora Innovation's self-driving trucks drive 100M miles by March 2027?
3
30
160
2027
30%
chance

At a "2024 Analyst & Investor Day" presentation on March 14, 2024, the autonomous vehicle company Aurora gave their autonomous trucking plan. This included projections on miles they will drive.

Will they hit 100M+ miles within 3 years of this presentation (March 14, 2027)?

Resolution:

  • This will resolve "Yes" if there is a PR announcement from Aurora Innovation, an announcement from a verifiable employee (eg, a post on X by the CEO), or reporting from major news media (eg, Forbes, WSJ, etc) before March 14, 2027 (23:59 EDT) claiming that they have driven 100M miles autonomously.

  • If Aurora Innovation is acquired, will resolve via an announcement from their new parent organization. Except, if that new parent organization is already an autonomous vehicle company with at least 10M autonomous miles announced at the time of acquisition ( thus making it difficult to disentangle Aurora's contribution) this will resolve N/A.

  • If Aurora Innovation is dissolved, this will resolve "No".

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