At a "2024 Analyst & Investor Day" presentation on March 14, 2024, the autonomous vehicle company Aurora gave their autonomous trucking plan. This included projections on miles they will drive.
Will they hit 100M+ miles within 3 years of this presentation (March 14, 2027)?
Resolution:
This will resolve "Yes" if there is a PR announcement from Aurora Innovation, an announcement from a verifiable employee (eg, a post on X by the CEO), or reporting from major news media (eg, Forbes, WSJ, etc) before March 14, 2027 (23:59 EDT) claiming that they have driven 100M miles autonomously.
If Aurora Innovation is acquired, will resolve via an announcement from their new parent organization. Except, if that new parent organization is already an autonomous vehicle company with at least 10M autonomous miles announced at the time of acquisition ( thus making it difficult to disentangle Aurora's contribution) this will resolve N/A.
If Aurora Innovation is dissolved, this will resolve "No".
1,000Just getting started now.. (1200 miles so far).
@parhizj yep, exciting to see. It will be tough for them to hit their 2025 number of 10M though. Assuming 50mph avg, they have 278 months of driving to do. So would need to average 35 trucks running 24/7 for the rest of the year. Not sure a good estimate for uptime on the trucks would be at this stage, but I think any reasonable estimate would require them to pretty quickly get to 100-300 vehicles. Seems pretty unlikely, but not completely impossible.
Things still seem unclear for March 2027.