Jon Batiste performance should count

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwdhlWHt36Y

Either I'm not using the right prompts or AI is still so useless for simple things like this.

@NFL This is what I got from Perplexity, but not sure how much to trust it…: https://www.perplexity.ai/search/Did-the-Oscars-M.azTEd8RniKLjM0Zox3FA

@dglid For some reason for me it thought Chris Mortensen was in the memoriam, although he wasn't listed in the Wikipedia entry. So unreliable.

Kris Bowers was born in Los Angeles and mentions that he went to "LA Public Schools", which I think should count.
https://youtu.be/Hf48aDZrBG4?si=7Uv-suKsZtAOP50B&t=73

@houstonEuler Yes, thank you.

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NO NO NO. IF you are looking closely, you can see the penis slip out of the trousers during Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)!!!

Nobody actually says "ceasefire". Glazer on Gaza:

"Right now, we stand here as men who refute their Jewishness and the Holocaust being hijacked by an occupation, which has led to conflict for so many innocent people — whether the victims of October the 7th in Israel or the ongoing attack on Gaza — all the victims of this dehumanization… how do we resist?"

I don't recall anyone else bringing it up on stage. Pins clearly don't count.

@nikstar Yeah, this one seems pretty clear. “Calling for” is the one I argue can be done without explicitly saying the word ceasefire.

@MarkHamill calls for is yes, but says is no in my opinion.

NYT agrees, also worn on stage

I'M SUCH A FUCKING MORON. OH MY GODDD. I BET NO ON THE THANK ONE FOR ACTORS WHEN I MEANT YES BYEEEE

@Will94fc I literally watched his speech twice to make sure I was right also 😭 I'm quitting manifold bye this is so sick

@Will94fc

@Will94fc The dreaded Yes/No error. It gets us all eventually.

@Will94fc hey it's alright. We all do silly mistakes sometimes.

Let me make this one easy for you. I submitted this. A current presidential candidate was mentioned by name by Jimmy Kimmel. Read my note. It officially counts. This can resolve yes.

@Predictor I like the footnote

@NFL No ifs, ands, buts, or obamacares on this one. It’s very clearly defined. Let’s get it resolved ASAP.

Huh. I just made 3k on this market even though I never watched the ceremony, simply by time-decaying where that should be expected. It's a crude strategy but it worked surprisingly well.

@Shump plus i generally think "nothing ever happens" applies here. most things don't happen

@Ziddletwix I was kinda doing that strategy for the state of the union speech, and I got surprisingly close to even with my bets. This time the strategy was just that if something happened, there's like a 90% chance that somebody on Manifold would have noticed and bought it up to >85%

@traders Put a good dent in these tonight, but the last 15 or so will need a quick re-watch tomorrow morning just to confirm. Please stand by.

@NFL Sleepy time? You have work to do…