Who will be the next Vice President-elect of the United States?
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124
แน143kJan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
55%
Other
44%
JD Vance
0.7%
Mark Kelly
0.2%
Roy Cooper
0.2%
Josh Shapiro
0.1%
Andy Beshear
0.1%
Pete Buttigieg
0%
Gretchen Whitmer
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some people are expecting that, yes e.g. https://manifold.markets/JimAusman/will-jd-vance-be-replaced-as-vice-p (though I think it's overvalued)
that saiid, AFAIK Manifold's risk-free rate for a november-closing bet is >5%, so we don't really need an explanation at all for an inefficiency of this size
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