Who will be the next Vice President-elect of the United States?
126
10kṀ200kresolved Nov 7
100%99.0%
JD Vance
0.4%
Mark Kelly
0.1%
Josh Shapiro
0.2%
Roy Cooper
0.1%
Andy Beshear
0.0%
Pete Buttigieg
0.0%
Gretchen Whitmer
0.1%
Other
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some people are expecting that, yes e.g. https://manifold.markets/JimAusman/will-jd-vance-be-replaced-as-vice-p (though I think it's overvalued)
that saiid, AFAIK Manifold's risk-free rate for a november-closing bet is >5%, so we don't really need an explanation at all for an inefficiency of this size
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