Will Law and Justice party (PiS) win the majority in Polish parliamentary elections to Sejm in 2023?
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resolved Oct 17
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NO

Results to YES if majority of seats in Sejm will be taken by candidates from PiS electoral comitee lists.

Election is planned for October 15th.

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predicted YES
predicted YES

@MrLuke255 I've never been so happy to lose Mana lol

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder XD

We'll see what happens now

Looking at polls as an outsider currently I'm predicting largest party but not an outright majority

predicted YES

@calcium1445 It depends on couple of factors, including if some opposition parties will pass the threshold or not

bought Ṁ10 of YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

betting yes to hedge lol

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder To hedge what?

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 the burden of living under PiS government

predicted YES

@CodeandSolder Ah, I forgot you are Polish too

bought Ṁ15 of YES

Here's how it went in 2019: https://sejmsenat2019.pkw.gov.pl/sejmsenat2019/pl/wyniki/sejm/pl

PiS had 43,53% votes which resulted in 235 seats.

So they have to win + have majority of seats?

predicted YES

@StanisawKokocinski I think it's how the proportional system work, but what I'm asking for is whether people selected from PiS election lists will have the majority of seats in Sejm, that is 231 or more.

predicted YES

I've updated the title to reflect what exactly I am asking about

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@MrLuke255 in Poland usually winning is related to having majority of votes/seats. Not necessary having 50%+ seats as it is not a common result. But the explanation is clear.

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