Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
resolved Jun 5

Starliner keeps getting delayed. Meanwhile, the FAA has said that the next Starship launch doesn't per se need to wait until the investigation is complete if there was no risk to the public. Who will win?

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T-1 min

bought Ṁ100 YES

@parhizj I wanna vote Yes cos, they gotta fly at some point right? But otoh they sure do have a track record of delays 😭

Apparently they've already fixed the issue that caused the Saturday scrub, so looking good for a Wednesday launch

bought Ṁ200 NO

The earliest they will try to launch Starliner is the 5th or 6th, while Starship is NET than the 6th.


Looks like they'll try for tomorrow.

sold Ṁ197 NO

And Starship is NET June 6

bought Ṁ80 NO

@mint Tbh that doesn't really say they'll go for it. Just that that's the next window. They don't really know enough yet to say AIUI.

bought Ṁ100 NO

@Mqrius Case in point, it's delayed till the 5th

There are backup opportunities to launch on June 2, June 5 and June 6, according to NASA.


@Kire_ Can they actually recycle within 1 day?

@Mqrius "Possibly a 24h turnaround"

bought Ṁ250 NO

Though personally I doubt they'll make the 24h turnaround. Also not sure if they want to address the valve sensors that they had to switch over to the backup

bought Ṁ100 NO

People on discord are saying any hold like this is a scrub

All ISS launches use an instantaneous launch window so they can make the required trajectory

Any hold makes making that window impossible

Edit: Gif doesn't work. Sad.

Edit: Here


bought Ṁ50 NO

@Mqrius "oops we accidentally started venting the helium tank"

bought Ṁ100 NO


They're loading up on the launchpad and this market's below 60%, really says something about the collective confidence in this vehicle.

To be fair a lot about it is new.

But yes.

@Mqrius (Also tbh I just decided to take my limited win and run, not sure if I wanna babysit this bet, considering going to touch grass instead)

sold Ṁ531 YES

Valves! Vaaaaaaaalves!

Since this might come down to the day: the actual moment of lift-off counts as launch. If they launch on the same second you're all getting a free cookie.

Damn, both are currently targeting June 1st, this really could go either way

@Nat On the one hand, the IFT-4 date seems a lot more tentative than the Starliner date, but on the other hand, Starliner has seen an absurd number of delays and who knows how many more there'll be