Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
64
1kแน€45k
resolved Jun 5
Resolved
YES

Starliner keeps getting delayed. Meanwhile, the FAA has said that the next Starship launch doesn't per se need to wait until the investigation is complete if there was no risk to the public. Who will win?

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€719
2แน€634
3แน€590
4แน€465
5แน€414
Sort by:

T-1 min

bought แน€100 YES

@parhizj I wanna vote Yes cos, they gotta fly at some point right? But otoh they sure do have a track record of delays ๐Ÿ˜ญ

Apparently they've already fixed the issue that caused the Saturday scrub, so looking good for a Wednesday launch

bought แน€200 NO

The earliest they will try to launch Starliner is the 5th or 6th, while Starship is NET than the 6th.

https://x.com/Commercial_Crew/status/1797017884184523133

Looks like they'll try for tomorrow.

sold แน€197 NO

And Starship is NET June 6

bought แน€80 NO

@mint Tbh that doesn't really say they'll go for it. Just that that's the next window. They don't really know enough yet to say AIUI.

bought แน€100 NO

@Mqrius Case in point, it's delayed till the 5th

There are backup opportunities to launch on June 2, June 5 and June 6, according to NASA.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/01/science/nasa-space-launch-boeing-starliner-scn/index.html

@Kire_ Can they actually recycle within 1 day?

@Mqrius "Possibly a 24h turnaround"

bought แน€250 NO

Though personally I doubt they'll make the 24h turnaround. Also not sure if they want to address the valve sensors that they had to switch over to the backup

bought แน€100 NO

People on discord are saying any hold like this is a scrub

All ISS launches use an instantaneous launch window so they can make the required trajectory

Any hold makes making that window impossible

Edit: Gif doesn't work. Sad.

Edit: Here

MOAR VALVES

bought แน€50 NO

@Mqrius "oops we accidentally started venting the helium tank"

bought แน€100 NO

Mqrius soldแน€531YES

They're loading up on the launchpad and this market's below 60%, really says something about the collective confidence in this vehicle.

To be fair a lot about it is new.

But yes.

@Mqrius (Also tbh I just decided to take my limited win and run, not sure if I wanna babysit this bet, considering going to touch grass instead)

sold แน€531 YES

Valves! Vaaaaaaaalves!

Since this might come down to the day: the actual moment of lift-off counts as launch. If they launch on the same second you're all getting a free cookie.

Damn, both are currently targeting June 1st, this really could go either way

@Nat On the one hand, the IFT-4 date seems a lot more tentative than the Starliner date, but on the other hand, Starliner has seen an absurd number of delays and who knows how many more there'll be

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy