Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve YES if Yoon Suk Yeol holds the title of president on January 1, 2025, even if he is suspended from his duties due to impeachment.
Update 2024-29-12 (PST): - In the event that Yoon Suk Yeol is arrested, the market will only resolve to YES if the arrest results in him ceasing to hold the title of president. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00@AviSchwartz only if his arrest would make him cease to be president (my understanding is that it would not)
@JoshuaWilkes Read here to understand the circumstances under which Prime Minister Han Duck-soo becomes the acting president.
@AviSchwartz for this question the precedent is already clearly established three weeks ago that someone becoming acting president does not cause a resolution if Yoon is still also president. He has to be removed from/leave office not just suspended.
https://www.ft.com/content/fa9dafe4-7d63-4ef0-970e-5e259feb8778
The opposition is unable to get the few votes they need from the president's party for impeachment.
@MalachiteEagle so that’s probably true, but i think the party is officially pretending it’s not true. Look at the comments of the deputy vs director of the NIS
The impeachment vote is expected to take place in about a week
Impeachment requires 200 of 300 members of the National Assembly
Opposition currently holds 192 seats
10 National Assembly members from the president's party voted against the declaration of martial law
The head of the president's political party rebuked him but has not weighed-in on impeachment
Removing the president would also mean removing all his cabinet members, and those positions are unlikely to be won back if his party members vote to impeach him
On the other hand, party members may lose reelection if they don't vote to impeach him
Once impeached, the president keeps his title but is suspended of power until a court rules on the impeachment 180 days later
Procedurally, the only way the president could change in the next 30 days is if he voluntarily resigns or dies
@SteveMichaels betting with the assumption that this market resolves based on title not whether he is the “acting president”
Polymarket currently at 64% https://polymarket.com/event/yoon-out-as-president-of-south-korea-in-2024?tid=1733248222818
@PaperBoy Reasoning in the comments there seems to be skepticism that he can be impeached or removed by the court in just 28 days, and a belief that he will not resign