My kid was conceived August 16. I ovulated on August 17. Due date calculated based on ovulation date is May 10, i.e. someone with a "normal" menstrual cycle would have had their last period begin August 3 if they ovulated on August 17.
I'm 31, I'll be 32 when the kid is born, and this is my first pregnancy.
April 12 = 36 weeks
...
May 3 = 39 weeks
May 10 = 40 weeks (due date)
Conception market for context: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-my-friend-get-pregnant-market-LyZIyqnAug?r=TW9sbHlIaWNrbWFu
Will annull if I miscarry. At this time (9 weeks 5 days) my miscarriage odds are less than 2.5%
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market uses thresholds (not buckets). Each date option will resolve YES if the birth occurs before or on that date, and NO if it occurs after that date.
Update 2025-10-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution mechanism: Each date option will resolve YES if the birth occurs before or on that date, and NO if it occurs after that date. This market uses thresholds (not buckets).
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Y'all need to check your assumptions:
By 40 weeks and 5 days: Roughly 50% of first-time mothers will have given birth.
By 41 weeks and 2 days: About 75% of first-time mothers will have given birth.
Before their due date: The proportion of first-time mothers who deliver before 37 weeks (preterm) is about 10-12%.
After their due date: Most first-time mothers will deliver after their due date, with the average first baby arriving about eight days past the due date.
@gorillawarfare thanks! When they're thresholds I think it goes without saying that it's "on or before" for each option, not "on." Not clear from the title, sure, but hopefully clear from the description.
Also babies sometimes die in the first few hours or weeks of life. So it's simpler to ask about birth date.
@Mrdudeguy The market appears to be in "independent" mode, so I think these are thresholds?
Need confirmation.
@Quroe I strongly suspect this is thresholds, if it were created as buckets the options would be forced to sum to one, plus OP has created other numeric bucketed markert correctly before
@MollyHickman so is this based on when your kid is outside the womb, or does the date of birth and before resolve yes?
@Mrdudeguy uhh not sure I understand the question (are you making a distinction between being outside the womb and being born) but: Each date option will resolve YES if the birth occurs before or on that date, and NO if it occurs after that date.
@MollyHickman so each option is "before or on x date" and e.g. if it's born on May 16 they all resolve NO except the last two options (May 17 and May 24) resolve YES
I'll edit the description