Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC), either the United States government or any U.S. citizen is formally placed on trial before a recognized international court for violations of international law related to the military conflict in Iran that escalated in 2026. If no such trial begins by this date, the market will resolve to NO.

Definitions:

• International Court: This is strictly limited to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the International Criminal Court (ICC), or a United Nations-mandated ad-hoc international criminal tribunal. Bilateral arbitral bodies (such as the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal) and domestic national courts do not qualify.

• Placed on Trial:

  • For the U.S. Government: The ICJ must formally commence oral hearings on the merits of a case brought against the U.S. (proceedings limited purely to provisional measures or initial jurisdictional objections do not satisfy this requirement).

  • For an individual American: A criminal trial must formally begin (e.g., the commencement of the trial phase, presenting of charges, or opening arguments) against a U.S. citizen.

• Related to War in Iran: The charges or claims must explicitly stem from the military actions, airstrikes, or state hostilities between the U.S. (and/or its allies) and Iran that escalated starting in February 2026.

Sources of Truth: Official dockets, case documents, or consensus reporting from major international news agencies (such as Reuters or Associated Press).

Background

Following the outbreak of direct military conflict between the U.S. (alongside Israel) and Iran on February 28, 2026, legal battles have begun to emerge. Iran filed a lawsuit (Case A-34) against the U.S. in May 2026 at the bilateral Iran-United States Claims Tribunal (IUSCT) alleging violations of the 1981 Algiers Accords, though legal experts note that the tribunal's jurisdiction is strictly restricted to claims arising before 1981.

Historically, holding the U.S. or its citizens accountable in international courts is legally and politically difficult. The U.S. is not a state party to the Rome Statute of the ICC, and it has previously withdrawn from bilateral treaties (such as the Treaty of Amity) to contest the jurisdiction of the ICJ. This market tracks whether the 2026 conflict will lead to an unprecedented formal international trial of the U.S. government or an American national.

This description was generated by AI.