Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, between June 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, there is credible reporting of a new or previously undisclosed assassination attempt against Donald Trump.

To resolve to YES, the reporting must meet the following criteria:

• New Attempt: An active incident occurring in June 2026 where an individual attempts to assassinate Donald Trump, or is arrested and formally accused/charged by law enforcement with attempting to assassinate him.

• Previously Undisclosed Attempt: The disclosure of a separate, distinct past attempt or plot that was not publicly known prior to June 1, 2026, which is officially described by law enforcement or government officials as an assassination attempt.

• Exclusions: Ongoing news, legal proceedings, investigation updates, or trial details regarding already publicly known attempts (such as the July 2024 Butler, PA shooting; the September 2024 West Palm Beach incident; the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner shooting involving Cole Tomas Allen; or the May 2026 security incidents near the White House) do not qualify.

• Source of Truth: Credible reporting from major established news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, BBC, CNN, NBC News) or official statements from agencies such as the U.S. Secret Service, FBI, or Department of Justice.

If no qualifying new or newly disclosed assassination attempt is reported by the end of June 30, 2026, the market resolves to NO.

Background

This question follows a series of high-profile security incidents involving Donald Trump. In addition to the July 2024 Butler, Pennsylvania shooting and the September 2024 West Palm Beach golf club incident, recent events include the April 25, 2026 shooting at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, for which suspect Cole Tomas Allen was charged with attempted assassination, and security incidents near the White House in May 2026. This market tracks whether a new attempt or a previously secret attempt is reported during June 2026.

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