do you need to be able to purchase it? based on the description my understanding was that no, but not sure. thing is, the first robot that can reliably do your laundry can prolly do other much more economically valuable things and will therefore be pretty expensive and in high demand

@Bayesian I don’t have to purchase it. As long as they are commercially available I can probably get my hands on one to test it. If they are very limited to only a few people then I don’t consider the robot to be commercially available.

@Mochi Okay, but what happens to this market if you decline to acquire one, whether as purchase or test? Does decline == "not available" == NO?

@marvingardens Testing 20 loads of laundry is a pretty serious borrow.

@marvingardens I am trying to think of scenarios where I decline (maybe when extremely unattainable for me), but let’s just assume for this market I will always try my best to obtain it and test it.

@Mochi But what happens to the market if you don't? Whether you tried your best or not?

@marvingardens if I try my best to get my hands on it and still unable to, then it’s not commercially available.

@Mochi (1) And what if you don't try your best? Everything can change by 2032. (2) What if you e.g. can get your hands on a test drive, but are unable to complete 20 tests in your test drive period?

@marvingardens (1) idk how I can prove, just have to trust me for trying my best (2) I will try make it to 20 tests, if I can’t, I will judge based on vibes whether it passes the bar

@Mochi I'm not asking you to prove that you will try your best, I'm asking you what you intend to do with this market in the situation where you do not. I hear you saying that you intend to do your best. I'm asking about the situation where you six years from now does not have the same intentions as you today. Would you think of that as a NO, or an N/A, or a third thing like giving up responsibility for the market or going to a set of fallback criteria

@marvingardens I see, I get your point. In the event where my intentions change, I am willing to relinquish my rights to resolve this market and let mods or polls to decide whether the technology is reliable and commercially available.

more robotics!

where's before Q1 2027

like cmon can't have the first bucket be after the intelligence explosion (half /s)

@Bayesian I didn’t include “before Q1 2027” because I assumed “robot reliably does my laundry and is generally available” was still safely in sci-fi territory. But I ll add them for some engineers to prove me wrong

@Mochi today, a model reliably solves one of the biggest problems in a major field of math that has remained open for over 70 years, and you're talking to me about sci-fi territory! We are living through the future, right now

@Bayesian We are living in the future, yes — but unfortunately my laundry duty is still living in the past.

When you say ‘reliably’ are we talking like… 90% or 99%… approximately

@DavidFWatson if it succeeds 95% of time without human intervention I ll count as reliable

@Mochi 95% is sufficient.

Is 95%, both, sufficent and necessary? i.e. would 94.5% success without human intervention no longer count as reliable?

@ShitakiIntaki umm approximately. Let’s say I ll test it 20 times and if it succeeds 19 times then it is reliable

@Mochi so a race to 19 successes before 2 failures?

@ShitakiIntaki let’s say I run it 20 times and accept 1 failure

@Mochi Sorry, so you have to acquire and test the robot? What if you personally decline to acquire the commercially-available robot?

@marvingardens answered a similar question here https://manifold.markets/Mochi/robots-reliably-do-my-laundry-by#4uyviymib95

Robots reliably do my laundry by?

If some robots are commercially available to regular people and can reliably do my laundry from start to finish by <date> then <date> resolves YES Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The robot must be able to perform the full laundry workflow autonomously: Locate and bring dirty clothes to the washing machine Start the wash cycle Move clothes to the dryer Fold the clothes Put clothes away in the closet All steps must be done reliably without user intervention. Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the hamper requirement: A robot that requires a specific type of hamper (e.g. cylindrical, cubic) that can be purchased is acceptable A robot that requires purchasing a proprietary special hamper from the robot company is not acceptable Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding acceptable requirements for the robot: A specific type of hamper (e.g. cylindrical, cubic) or detergent that can be purchased is acceptable Modifications to the home (washer, closet, folding surface, floor, etc.) are not acceptable due to apartment restrictions Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Home modifications are not acceptable for resolution. The robot must handle the chores as-is; solutions that hard-code the environment (e.g. require proprietary modifications to the washer, dryer, closet, or floor) do not count. Update 2026-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding washing machine/dryer errors: If an error is caused by robot action, it counts as human intervention if a human must resolve it If an error is not caused by robot action, resolving it does not count as human intervention The creator has a front load washing machine.