Deal:
Individuals: @Mira @MarcusAbramovitch
Type of Deal: Virtual Shares in market
Target Market: /QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre
Quantity: 500,000 shares. @Mira owns 500k YES, and @MarcusAbramovitch owns 500k NO
Price: 4%
Cost basis: M20,000 on YES, 480,000 on NO
Individuals have made a virtual exchange of shares off-contract. When the target market resolves, these virtual NO and YES shares will be manually exchanged for mana to match that resolution.
On NO resolution of target market, the holder of each NO share will be given M1.
On YES resolution, the holder of each YES share will be given M1.
On NA resolution, the deal will be canceled and no exchange will be made.
On PROB resolution, each YES and NO share will be partially paid out according to the resolution price and the net amount transferred.
Net payment is the share payout minus the cost basis.
Payments can be sent either as managrams, manalinks, profit transfers in special-purpose markets, or any other reasonable form the receiver requests.
This market resolves YES if either individual does not send payment within 1 week of the target market resolving, unless they mutually agree to extend the settlement date. NO if the shares are paid out in a timely manner. NA if the target market is canceled.
It is considered dishonorable to intentionally default to profit from this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ105 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ15 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
I'm looking at all my old personal markets to cancel them because of the real-money pivot. This one seems problematic because "commitment to give me money, executed by the Manifold platform" makes shares in this market a security. It looks like a mana transfer which is forbidden, too.
I'm going to just predict NO to save the admins a small possibility of trouble.
I expect @MarcusAbramovitch to send me cash if LK-99 is real(since mana transfers are forbidden), but we won't use Manifold to execute it.
@MarcusAbramovitch I think we should promise to pay her at the original value of the mana even if they devalue lol
@MarcusAbramovitch I think I gave you 158,636 NO shares in the main market just now. Do you mind if I deduct that from these share counts? Trying to devirtualize so I don't have any liabilities past mid 2024.
These should be your LK-99 fills since October 12:
@Mira Basically, yes, i do mind. The whole reason I did this was basically for leverage (at a worse price at the time)
@MarcusAbramovitch I guess these shares stay on the books then. I'll make an escrow market at some point for the M20k and you can buy NO at like 99%, so my side is guaranteed for you.