This market predicts whether an AI alignment research paper will be featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal, such as Nature, Science, or PNAS, by December 31, 2024.

Resolves YES if:

• An AI alignment research paper is featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal on or before December 31, 2024.

Resolves PROB if:

• There is uncertainty as to whether the best candidate is considered an AI alignment research paper.

Resolves NO if:

• No AI alignment research paper is featured on the cover of a prestigious scientific journal by December 31, 2024.

Resolves as NA if:

• All of the prestigious scientific journals cease to exist, merge, or undergo significant restructuring, rendering the original intent of the market unclear or irrelevant.

Definitions:

• "AI alignment research paper" refers to a research paper focused on the study of AI safety, alignment, or value alignment, addressing the challenge of ensuring that AI systems understand and respect human values, preferences, and intentions, even as they improve their capabilities. Examples of AI alignment topics include, but are not limited to, corrigibility, reward modeling, interpretability, and robustness.

• "Prestigious scientific journal" refers to high-impact, peer-reviewed academic journals with a strong reputation in the scientific community. Examples include Nature, Science, and PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences). The market creator may add journals to this list; the main requirement is that the journal not be AI-focused, emphasizing that the result is of general scientific interest. If there's a dispute, a poll may be taken to decide whether a new entry is qualified.

• "Featured on the cover" means that the AI alignment research paper is the primary focus of the journal's cover image or design, or is highlighted on the cover through text or images. The cover feature should emphasize the significance of the AI alignment research paper. It is the responsibility of market participants to bring candidates to the market creator's attention for judgment: if no candidates are raised for attention by traders or by the market creator, then the market resolves NO even if later someone realizes that an example would have qualified - in this case, I will provide 1 week of leeway after announcing my intended resolution, for anyone to provide examples.

• In the event of a PROB resolution, market creator is responsible for determining a confidence and resolving to it. Tools used may include reading the paper and making their own determination, creating a poll, or asking alignment researchers.

• Market creator will not bet more than a token amount(M10) in this market, since the criteria are subjective.

Market description changes

• 2023-04-03: Clarified that traders are responsible for bringing candidates to the market's attention. And that the creator will not bet in the market.