How many Manifold markets will be created in 2024?

Basic

Ṁ359

Jan 1

33%

128000

27%

256000

12%

Other

10%

512000

64000

1.5%

1000

1.5%

2000

1.5%

4000

1.5%

8000

1.5%

16000

1.5%

32000

The Market Count is the number of markets on Manifold markets created in 2024(PST timezone). Binary, multibinary, bounties, polls, free response all count as 1 market each. New types of markets will count by default unless something about them makes them awkward to count(such as if multi-binary was implemented by creating separate market objects internally). Markets on other products in the Manifold brand will count if they are running on the same infrastructure and in the same database tables. (so Salem tournaments don't count, but Manifold Love does.)

Resolves to the linear interpolation between nearest bounding answers, or 100% to an option if it is exact.

Example: There are 1400 markets. Then this market resolves to (1400 - 1000) / (2000 - 1000) = 60% 1000 and 40% 2000.

New options will be added at double the previous largest as needed.

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I ran a simple script, and in the last month, 9182 markets were added. Without any user growth over the next year, that extrapolates to around 108k markets

@TonyPepperoni I added 3 levels of options since I saw Other was at 80%.

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