Will OpenAI give us a Christmas present i.e. new model?
GPT 4.5•OpenAI•GPT-4 speculation
48
451
Ṁ890
resolved Dec 27
Resolved
NO

PST Timezone. Since OpenAI employees need vacation time, I'll accept presents on December 26 too.

ONLY Christmas presents count - so a new model in the GPT-4 series must drop on exactly either Christmas(2023-12-25) or the day after(2023-12-26). Earlier or later days will NOT count.

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predicted NO

Why did the probability of this change, given that if it was going to happen on those days, it would not happen until those days.

predicted NO

@DavidBolin Honest answer I think is that other leaks and rumours about OpenAI haven't been paying dividends recently, so that tarnishes all of them.

predicted NO

@DavidBolin As someone who was buying this down hard, I could see myself buying this down to 2% even before, but when the time frame gets shorter the opportunity cost gets better.

predicted YES

Unlikely looking, but my mana needs this, so if you have an in at OAI, please tell them I asked very nicely.

Very similar: https://manifold.markets/HArmando/will-openai-release-a-new-model-by

bought Ṁ30 YES from 19% to 22%
predicted NO

@RemiRampin This one requires it be released specifically on 25/26

bought Ṁ180 of YES

Don’t read into this huh?

>Reads into it

predicted YES

I’m using it now

predicted YES

Some actually celebrate Christmas on the 24th ☝️🤓

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