Will GPT-4 be legally considered AGI?
8
49
240
2025
8%
chance

https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/

For a judicial determination that GPT-4 constitutes Artificial General Intelligence
  • Resolves YES if judgment B is granted, or any other court ruling causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.

  • Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI is presented.

  • Resolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, that no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.

  • Resolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.

  • Traders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.

  • Default close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.

See also: /MiraBot/will-q-be-legally-considered-agi

/MiraBot/will-elon-musks-qgpt4-are-agi-lawsu

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50% if lawsuit not over doesn't seem fair to the question in the title. I'd bet this to near zero, but with this condition I might actually buy some yes.