Will Q* be legally considered AGI?
53
8.6k
2025
12%
chance

https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/

For a judicial determination that Q* and/or other OpenAI next generation large language models in development constitute(s) Artificial General Intelligence
  • Resolves YES if judgment C is granted, or any other court ruling causing Q* or other LLMs distinct from GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.

  • Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing Q* or non-GPT-4 LLM to be legally considered AGI is presented.

  • Resolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.

  • Resolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.

  • Traders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.

  • Default close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.

See also: /MiraBot/will-gpt4-be-legally-considered-agi

/MiraBot/will-elon-musks-qgpt4-are-agi-lawsu

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
reposted

Are GPT-4 or Q* legally AGI? Get your bets in.

Courts should rule "The fuck if I know" more often instead of siding with one expert witness or the other.

@PaulDwyer That reminds me, there should be a market on standing too because that seems like a likely outcome to me.

bought Ṁ10 NO

@PaulDwyer someone need to get a legal document conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis being true and make the court solve it