https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/
For a judicial determination that Q* and/or other OpenAI next generation large language models in development constitute(s) Artificial General IntelligenceResolves YES if judgment C is granted, or any other court ruling causing Q* or other LLMs distinct from GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.
Resolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing Q* or non-GPT-4 LLM to be legally considered AGI is presented.
Resolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.
Resolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.
Traders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.
Default close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.
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@PaulDwyer That reminds me, there should be a market on standing too because that seems like a likely outcome to me.
@PaulDwyer someone need to get a legal document conditional on the Riemann Hypothesis being true and make the court solve it