Will any large company leave the United States because of AI regulations? (2025)
Completely leave
Move employees elsewhere
Move model training or inference elsewhere
Nothing will happen

Resolves to the first qualifying option in this list:

  • "Completely leave" if the company has no physical presence in the USA. No employees, land(leases allowed), or company registration. If the US government argues for nexus, it still counts as long as the company intended to separate.

  • "Moves employees elsewhere" if any employees move outside the US to do work prohibited by any AI regulation. Example: Relocating the pretraining team to Oregon. Starting a new team could count too, if the location is chosen for the purpose of avoiding AI regulation.

  • "Moves model training or inference elsewhere" if compute clusters in the USA are avoided in preference of clusters elsewhere.

  • "Nothing will happen" if no qualifying event occurs by end of 2025.

Any specific AI regulation or "US AI regulation" in general must be identified as the cause in an announcement, communication by any executive, or by a journalist in communication with the company. Market creator reserves the right to accept other sources or reject a source. (Example: Jeff Bezos tweeting a mention of a company moving training to Virginia because of SB-1047 would count, but Alex Jones on Infowars interpreting evidences may be excluded at creator's discretion)

A "large company" is either a public company or one with a reported valuation greater than $1 billion with at least $50 million in liquidity. Valuation can be common stock, preferred stock, or anything else as long as it's reported to have qualifying numbers.

If a lower option occurs, this market will remain open in case a higher option occurs. Example: If OpenAI states they will not train GPT-5 on any US servers, then it's still possible they could relocate employees or leave US entirely.

If a subsidiary is created or a company is split off, this may resolve "Completely leave" if the purpose is legal separation from the USA. It's unlikely the company would state "because of US AI regulations" because this would give the US government a reason to argue nexus, so it will need to be paired with other evidence like data center or pretraining employees moving to the new company. In all other cases, regulations must be explicitly mentioned.

An announcement is sufficient. If an announcement is made and later withdrawn, it will still count as long as it was an official company announcement. Example: Elon Musk threatening to leave the US because of SB-1047 would count as evidence if any event actually happens; but if not it won't count unless x.ai or Tesla make a press release or company announcement.

Qualifying events should be posted in the comments. Market creator may do a cursory search or follow AI news, but responsibility is on traders to post evidence.

See also:




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