Add yourself to the list, and bet on whether they'll ever have sex on the app.
Resolves:
YES if that person tells me(in a DM, or publicly in comments) that they had sex with someone, such that Manifold Love counterfactually caused that sex to happen.
NA if they tell me to or if the submitting user is not the answer's user.
NO if it's the end of the year and nothing has happened.
What counts?
Preexisting relationships are presumed to not count.
But if you knew somebody before Manifold Love, and the presence of their dating profile caused you two to have sex, that counts.
If you see someone on Manifold Love, but don't make an account and all messaging is done off-site, that still counts because the other person's profile caused you to message them.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ83 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ37 | |
| 4 | Ṁ35 | |
| 5 | Ṁ32 |
People are also trading
@MichaelBlume @TiredCliche @Shelvacu @axr @Tetraspace
Did anything happen?
Looks like I set the close date to February 14 to match /JamesGrugett/will-manifold-dating-reach-1000-dai but wrote "end of the year" in the description. I think a literal reading could imply "If you added yourself last year, I use December 31 2023 as cutoff date; if you added yourself this year, I have to extend this market to December 31, 2024". Apologies for the confusion.
@Tumbles I'm pretty sure if Mira gets laid it won't because the right person showed up on an app. It's probably gonna be be to cement an intergalactic alliance, or because they were sold at auction, or because they had to teach the machine god how to love.
@Aelerinya An admin commented requiring individuals submit their own names. So every option submitted by someone else had to be NA'd for the market to stay open.
You can add your name back if you want. But it can't be someone else adding you.
@epiphanie_gedeon They might not be checking back regularly. They might not want to be put in the situation of publicly choosing to N/A themselves here. And they shouldn't have to take action to prevent a thing they don't want. This has to be opt in.
If you don't update the description to require people to add themselves, I will N/A this market. @Mira
@JamesGrugett I think something is wrong with how multiple choice markets N/A. The notification said I lost money in the N/A, and now the UI is telling me the expected value of my shares is -14M$
@MilfordHammerschmidt Because you sold Aella shares at a profit, that profit and any loans was clawed back. That happens in regular binary markets too, whenever trading profits are reversed.
@Mira That should give a different notification message, something like "we clawed back 25M$ of profits" rather than teh standard "you lost X, but outperformed Y users"