Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
57
1.7kṀ21k2026
75%
Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think
41%
DeepSeek-R2
38%
DeepSeek Coder V3
4%
Claude 5
Resolved
YESLlama 4
Resolved
YESClaude 4(any version)
Resolved
YESGemini 2
Resolved
YESClaude 4 Opus
Resolved
YESPhi 4
Resolved
YESGrok 2
When a model named GPT-5 is released, all options resolve NO.
When a model named matching an option is released, it resolves YES.
At end of 2025, all options resolve 50%.
You can add options.
Resolution is by name, not by expectation or capability.
"GPT-5" is not literal. "GPT-5", "GPT 5", "GPT 5.0" all match. But there has to be a "5" somewhere. If it's named "GPT-Next" but described as "fifth generation of the GPT series" I'll accept that as GPT-5. But there has to be a 5 either in the name or in the release article unambiguously designating it.
"Next frontier model after GPT-4" is not clear enough. There must be a "5".
Slight variations of the others are also accepted("Gemini 2" vs. "Gemini-2.0" but not "Gemini 1.5 Ultra" or "Gemini Next").
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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