Will Cruise announce 6 million driverless miles before the end of October 2023?
resolved Nov 1
https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/cruise-llc-driverless-robotaxis-california-dmv-suspends-permits/ [link preview]
Oct 24

Any annoucement including a blog post, company/employee social media post, press release, or news article is fine. Time ends at 23:59:59 on October 31, 2023, Pacific Time. Note that this market depends on a public announcement, so it still resolves to NO if the miles are announced after closing time even if those miles were achieved before closing time.

(Note that driverless miles are NOT the same as self-driving miles. The later includes safety driver miles)

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10/24 earnings and 10/24 blog post only mention "over 5 million miles of [driverless] driving", no mention of 6 million. Cruise's permit was suspended in CA the same day. On Sunday 10/26 Cruise announced they are pausing all driverless operations and returning to supervised driving (safety drivers, whose miles do not count for these markets).

Based on the lack of any 6 million mile announcement I am resolving this market NO



Additionally, I think Cruise probably did NOT reach 6 million driverless miles before they ended driverless ops, but are probably very close. I estimate they're currently (stuck) between around 5,900,000 to 5,940,000 driverless miles.


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Cruise may have already reached 6 million driverless miles before halting service, but even if thats the case they won't be bragging about it after halting driverless service-- but it could be mentioned in passing

@MingweiSamuel Only "over 5 million miles of driving" is mentioned in the Panini human crayon blog post. Seems like this'll resolve no

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Cruise reached 3 million driverless miles on 2023-07-07: https://twitter.com/kvogt/status/1677341698572312578
Cruise reached 4 million driverless miles on 2023-08-11 (35 days): https://twitter.com/kvogt/status/1690050803283922944
Cruise reached 5 million driverless miles on 2023-09-19 (39 days): https://youtu.be/LiYTtYC5iB8?t=384 (https://manifold.markets/zzlk/will-cruise-announce-5-million-driv)
To 2023-10-31 is 42 days from the previous mark, so Cruise should reach that mark as long as nothing catastrophic happens, and assuming they announce it. Kyle Vogt has been pretty good at announcing but they didn't make a twitter post for 5M.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@MingweiSamuel Didn't California restrict the number of cars they can have on the road, though?

@WrongoPhD Yes on 2023-08-21 the CA DMV restricted Cruise to 50 cars during the day and 150 cars at night in San Francisco, which is probably why 4M->5M took longer than 3M->4M. Kyle Vogt said they were at 1M/mo but they missed that mark. But they are also expanding operations in Austin and Houston.

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