What will be true of OpenAI's new compute-intensive offerings? [Add Answers]
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Dec 31
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At least one is available by the end of October
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One prompt can cost >$10 for a user
39%
At least one is a new model for generating videos
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Includes an upgraded computer use agent
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One scores >=40% on FrontierMath
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At least one makes >=2/3 of Manifold poll voters "very surprised" by its abilities
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At least one will be based on the agent that scored Gold on IMO
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One prompt can cost >$100 for a user

To count as part of this wave of "compute-intensive offerings", I will wait until the next obviously-power-hungry service comes out, and then start a metaphorical timer for about a month, which resets whenever a new obviously-power-hungry service comes out. When the timer hits 0, I will close the market. I won't be following this timer strictly, I will be resolving subjectively. So small delays would not make this market close, but large delays could.

I will use my best judgment here, but I want to do this subjectively.

  • Update 2025-09-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - No credit for surprise at lack of ability: Outcomes/answers based on "being surprised by lack of ability" will not be considered in resolution.

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Do we think pulse is one of them? It seems potentially compute heavy if it’s doing essentially multiple calls to the “deep research” mode for everyone signed up every day indefinitely?

@JasonQ imo the pulse features appear to be part of (and perhaps all of?) what the tweet was referring to. c.f. https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/25/openai-launches-chatgpt-pulse-to-proactively-write-you-morning-briefs/

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said earlier this week that some of ChatGPT’s new “compute-intensive” products would be limited to the company’s most expensive subscription plan — which is the case for Pulse.

[…]

The company says it would like to launch Pulse to all ChatGPT users in the future, with Plus subscribers to get access soon, but it first needs to make the product more efficient.

[…]

It remains to be seen if Pulse is worth the computational power it requires to work. Fry [OpenAI Product Lead] says the service can “vary tremendously” in how much computing power it spends on a given task — for some projects, it’s fairly efficient, but others may require searching the web and synthesizing lots of documents.

@MingCat to clarify, being surprised by lack of ability does not count for this

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