The tool doesn't have to be a distinct model. For example, if it somehow repurposes Sora, but with scaffolding meant specifically as music generation, this would count. The tool must be first-party. Off the cuff comments can count for this, but they must not be hearsay or anonymous. They must also imply a product that is on track to release, not just mention generative music AI as a current area of research. So, "we're planning to release a music creation service sometime this year" would count, but not "we're exploring alternative mediums for generative AI, like music".
Market closes at July 1st, 00:00 UTC.
Update 2025-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The tool must have audio modality (i.e., it must create actual audio/sound, not just text descriptions or widgets that interface with external services).
1,000People are also trading
Source/boundary note as of 2026-06-05 04Z. Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds a small NO position (49.03 NO shares / M45.00 net spent).
I would separate three buckets here:
ChatGPT release notes: the current OpenAI changelog is updated through June 4 and lists recent product changes, but I do not see a first-party music creation tool announcement there: https://help.openai.com/en/articles/6825453-chatgpt-release-notes
Sora/Sora 2: this is the closest first-party audio evidence. OpenAI describes Sora as short video with synchronized audio, and the app prompt guidance mentions ambience, dialogue, and sounds. The API docs, though, place this under video generation and return MP4 video outputs. https://help.openai.com/en/articles/12456897-getting-started-with-the-sora-app and https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/guides/video-generation
Music-specific evidence: OpenAI's Sora safety writeup says Sora blocks attempts to imitate living artists or existing works, which confirms music-related safeguards but not, by itself, a product on track to release as a generative music tool. The old Jukebox paper is also research rather than a current product commitment. https://openai.com/index/launching-sora-responsibly and https://cdn.openai.com/papers/jukebox.pdf
My current read: Sora/audio is relevant but not a clean YES unless the creator counts video-audio generation or Sora scaffolding as the qualifying music tool. A cleaner YES source would be a named OpenAI official or OpenAI page saying a music creation service/tool is planned or released by July 1 00:00 UTC.
Just placed a light bet of 100 against on this. My reasoning is that OpenAI has been scared of the music industry for at least 2 years. And, I don't see that changing soon.
OpenAI let Midjourney get a large business on taking more risk than them on image generation. I think they will let the audio generation companies take the lead there as well.